Analysis Search

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War in Ukraine: One Year On, Nowhere Safe

1 March 2023

This report analyzes trends in ACLED data over the course of the first year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine

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Timeline: Lead-up to Ukraine Invasion

3 March 2022

Ceasefire Violations and Key Developments in Donbas Fighting between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-led separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine surged during the week of Russia’s full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, contributing to a 341% increase in violence relative to the previous month. After an initial decline in fighting following the July…

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Breaking the Pattern: The Relative Success of the Latest Ceasefire Agreement in Ukraine

24 November 2020

A recent ceasefire agreement in Donbas has resulted in a significant decrease in fighting between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-led separatists and has raised hopes for the future of Ukrainian-Russian peace talks. On 22 July 2020, the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine (TCG) — a platform where representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for…

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CDT Spotlight: Protest and Conflict in Ukraine

11 June 2020

A looming recession threatens to spark popular unrest in Ukraine, while ceasefire violations have continued through the pandemic in the eastern Donbas region. ACLED Research Analyst Andrea Carboni maps the country’s political violence and protest landscape. This infographic is part of our special CDT Spotlight series. © 2020 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). All…

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Call Unanswered: A Review of Responses to the UN Appeal for a Global Ceasefire

13 May 2020

On 23 March, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for a global coronavirus ceasefire (UN News, 23 March 2019). The truce would allow pandemic responses to be carried out in areas that are usually too dangerous for medical personnel to access due to ongoing conflict, and could also create opportunities for negotiations between belligerents.  Unfortunately, the…

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Donbas: Where the Guns Do Not Stay Silent

13 April 2020

On 10 December 2019, leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France met in Paris in the ‘Normandy’ format1 to discuss peace plans for the Donbas region of Ukraine, where the conflict between Russia-backed separatist rebels and Ukrainian government forces has now entered its seventh year. Although frontlines have stabilized, fighting continues on a daily basis.…

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The Calm Before the Storm? The Potential for Violence During Ukraine’s Upcoming Parliamentary Elections

24 April 2019

On Sunday, 21 April, actor and political newcomer Volodymyr Zelensky was elected President of Ukraine in a landslide victory over incumbent Petro Poroshenko, a candidate against whom some nationalist groups campaigned. First reports indicate that the elections were calm and without major irregularities. During the presidential election run-up in March and April, ACLED recorded some…

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