Early Warning & Forecasting

Conflict Change Map


The Conflict Change Map identifies countries and territories experiencing rising political violence. The dashboard displays two filled maps of the world: the first highlights (in dark red) countries and territories with a large increase in violence during the past month relative to the past year; and the second highlights countries and territories with a large increase in violence during the past week relative to the past month. These countries and territories are flagged in the watchlist accompanying each map. Please note that these maps depict change in violence rates, not overall violence levels. A very violent country that experiences a significant decline in violence may still be very violent, but it will register a “large decrease in violence” on these maps. Violence rates are calculated using the number of battle events, explosion/remote violence events, violence against civilians events, and riot events, as well as the excessive force against protesters sub-event type of the protest event type, excluding peaceful protest events and protest with intervention events.

This tool is not currently optimised for mobile use. Please view the page on a desktop or tablet device.

Using the Conflict Change Map

The countries on the map are colored based on changes in their rates of political violence. The colors and their corresponding categories and thresholds are as follows:

Color Category Percent Change Thresholds
Dark Red Large increase in violence Greater than 25%
Light Red Moderate increase in violence Between 10% and 25%
Light Teal Limited change in violence Between -25% and 10%
Dark Teal Large decrease in violence Less than -25%

Countries with large increases in violence (those in dark red on each map) are listed on the watchlist accompanying each map.

Why might a country experience a significant spike in violence? To better understand the factors behind these surges, see ACLED’s Regional Overviews, which describe and contextualize the latest developments and trends in political disorder across each region during the previous week. Use ACLED’s global dashboard to map wider macro-level trends.