Early Warning & Forecasting

Subnational Threat & Surge Trackers


Use the Subnational Threat & Surge Trackers to pinpoint local-level spikes in violence. The interactive dashboards track all first-order administrative divisions (e.g. states, provinces, governorates, etc.) that register a significant increase in political violence. The Subnational Surge Tracker flags cases in which a first-order administrative division has seen an increase of 100% or more in violent events during the most recent week of data relative to the average number of events per week over the past month. These surges capture immediate spikes, some of which may be early warning signs for further increases in violence. The Subnational Threat Tracker flags when the weekly average of violent events in a first-order administrative division has increased by 100% or more during the most recent month of data relative to the weekly average for the past year, capturing rising longer-term threats. Clicking on each first-order administrative division zooms in on a country-level map that displays the hotspot.1 The dashboard is limited to those first-order administrative divisions where the four-week average number of events is at least one. This setting weeds out cases in which a first-order administrative division that does not usually experience political violence registers a single event, which would trigger a large percent change. Violence rates are calculated using the number of battle events, explosion/remote violence events, violence against civilians events, and riot events, as well as the excessive force against protesters sub-event type of the protest event type, excluding peaceful protest events and protest with intervention events.

Subnational Surge Tracker

Subnational Threat Tracker

This tool is not currently optimised for mobile use. Please view the page on a desktop or tablet device.

More Information

How can you assess the volatility of violence in an administrative unit? Countries prone to frequent spikes in political violence (highly volatile states) are at heightened risk of further escalation. Use the Volatility & Risk Predictability Index to better understand how common or rare conflict spikes are within a particular first-order administrative division.