Early Warning & Forecasting


Conflict Alert System


The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) is a new conflict forecasting tool that predicts political violence events up to six months in the future for every country in the world. Updated predictions are released each month for the following six months, alongside accuracy metrics for previous forecasts.

Use of the tool requires registration for a free account.


May Data Pause: ACLED data updates are paused for the second and third weeks of May 2023. Data covering the period of 29 April to 19 May will be published according to the regular data release schedule on Monday, 22 May, and Tuesday, 23 May. Standard updates on Monday and Tuesday will resume the following week. As a result of this schedule adjustment, ACLED CAST will not produce predictions for May, and will instead release new forecasts in June.

Monthly Report

The monthly ACLED CAST report highlights key forecasts for the coming month in an immersive scrollytelling format.

Download Results

This file contains monthly forecasts produced by ACLED CAST as well as the observed number of events for each month.

Use & Access Information

To access ACLED CAST, please register for an account in the ACLED Access Portal or login with your existing account information. Free access includes 10 logins to the CAST dashboard or downloads of CAST outputs.

Those who wish to gain further access to ACLED CAST are invited to contact ACLED at [email protected] to discuss their needs.