ACLED CAST Monthly Report

The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months. This report reflects the March 2023 update of global forecasts.

UKRAINE

After more than a year of war with Russia, conflict levels are forecasted to remain consistently high in Ukraine over the next six months. In March 2023, ACLED CAST predicts 666 battle events, 2,917 explosions/remote violence events, and 56 violence against civilians events. This total represents a limited change relative to the 12-month average in Ukraine.

Significant increases relative to the 12-month average in explosions/remote violence events are predicted in nearly half of all oblasts, while increased battle events are predicted in mostly the northern and eastern regions. Meanwhile, violence against civilians events are predicted to decrease across many oblasts around the country, including Kherson and Kyiv, while increasing elsewhere, as in Sumy or Mykolaiv.

For more on the Ukraine conflict, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.

MYANMAR

Although the after-effects of the 2021 coup continue to drive conflict in Myanmar - with high numbers of violent events each month - the overall number of reported incidents has been slowly declining since mid-2022. This trend is predicted to stabilize in early 2023. In March 2023, Myanmar is forecasted to have 276 battle events, 261 explosions/remote violence events, and 126 violence against civilians events. This total represents a limited change relative to the 12-month average in Myanmar.

Several ACLED CAST indicators featured heavily in the formation of the predictions for each administrative division in Myanmar this month. In particular, many administrative divisions' forecasts relied on the number of events in the previous month involving the military against political militias, meaning this indicator was a meaningful predictor in most areas of the country.

For more on Myanmar, see the ACLED Conflict Watchlist 2023.

ETHIOPIA

The number of events in Ethiopia is predicted to increase slightly in March 2023, although the 64 predicted events still represent a significant decrease from the average number of monthly events over the last 12 months. Significant decreases across all event types compared to the average are predicted in Tigray and Oromia.

In Oromia, 36 events are predicted in March, compared to an average of 57 events per month in the preceding 12-month period. This prediction is largely driven by the number of battles events from the previous month, but other factors like violent interactions between the Ethiopian military and civilians as well as strategic development events from the previous month are also contributing to the forecast.

For more on Ethiopia, visit the Ethiopia Peace Observatory.

BRAZIL

Following an increase in election-related unrest in late 2022, Brazil is forecasted to continue to see a high number of events in March 2023. A total of 628 battles, explosions/remote violence, and violence against civilians events are predicted for March 2023, which is a limited change from the average of 736 events seen per month over the last 12 months.

In São Paulo and Minas Gerais - states which saw high levels of post-election demonstrations in late 2022 - interactions between political militias and civilians in previous months contributed significantly to the March 2023 forecast of 38 and 23 violence against civilians events, respectively.

For more on Brazil, see the ACLED report Deadly Rio de Janeiro: Armed Violence and the Civilian Burden.

YEMEN

As back-channel negotiations continue between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia - and as the conflict has simmered in the post-truce period - the number of events in Yemen is predicted to decrease slightly in March 2023. ACLED CAST forecasts 288 events in Yemen in March 2023, marking a decrease of 40% from the monthly average of 482 events over the last 12 months. In particular, battles and explosions/remote violence events are predicted to decrease significantly compared to the average, while violence against civilians events are predicted to remain largely the same as average.

Multiple western governorates are forecasted to see significant declines in the number of events in March 2023, including Taizz, Sanaa, and Marib - although in places like Taizz, the predicted event count remains high. These declines are driven largely by the number of explosions/remote violence and battles events in the previous month.

For more on Yemen, see the ACLED Conflict Watchlist 2023.