ACLED https://acleddata.com/ Bringing Clarity to Crisis Thu, 11 May 2023 16:40:17 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.2 Turkey’s 2023 General Elections and the Kurdish Question https://acleddata.com/2023/05/08/turkeys-2023-general-elections-and-the-kurdish-question/ Mon, 08 May 2023 15:19:17 +0000 https://acleddata.com/?p=49731 This report examines how Turkish security forces have dealt with Kurdish separatists at home and abroad during Erdogan’s second mandate as president and in the lead-up to the 2023 elections.

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Election Watch

Turkey’s 2023 General Elections and the Kurdish Question

8 May 2023

The most consequential elections in Turkey’s recent history are set to be held on 14 May, when Turkish citizens will elect a new president alongside a new parliament. An ideologically disparate coalition of six opposition parties, ranging from secularists, to Islamic conservatives, and Turkish nationalists, have joined forces under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu to unseat Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has been in power for 20 years, initially as prime minister and then as president since 2014.

Erdogan secured an outright majority in the previous round of elections in June 2018, assuming new powers under Turkey’s new constitution. While critics argued that the enhanced presidential role places too much power in one person’s hands and lacks sufficient checks and balances, Erdogan has maintained that the increased authority is essential, among others, for national security.1

This report examines how Turkish security forces have dealt with Kurdish separatists at home and abroad during Erdogan’s second mandate as president and in the lead-up to the 2023 elections. Erdogan’s hawkish policies towards the Kurds, while successful at driving the conflict outside the country’s borders, have further alienated domestic Kurdish minority groups, who have been the target of political repression. If Kurdish voters and other opposition groups can successfully mobilize an anti-Erdogan voting bloc, they may mount the toughest electoral challenge yet to Turkey’s long-time president. 

Crackdown on Kurdish Political Movement 

Erdogan’s approach to the Kurdish question has changed over the last two decades. He courted the Kurds early in his rule, introducing tentative reforms on Kurdish cultural and linguistic rights and developing cordial relations with the then newly founded Pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). He also engaged in peace negotiations with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish armed group that has waged an insurgency since 1984 against Turkish authorities. However, this did not translate into a broader political support for Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) among the Kurdish electorate, with the HDP winning 13% of the vote in 2015 elections and the AKP losing its majority in the national parliament.2 Soon after, the PKK-Turkish conflict resumed, and the government unleashed a harsh crackdown on the HDP, which intensified after the post-coup state of emergency in mid-2016.

The Turkish government has jailed scores of HDP politicians and former parliamentarians on terrorism charges and ties to the PKK in recent years, including the co-leader of the HDP, Selahattin Demirtas. After the HDP won 65 municipalities in the 2019 local election in Turkey’s southeastern Kurdish areas, Ankara ousted the majority of the mayors within 18 months, replacing them with government-appointed bureaucrats.3 The HDP currently faces the threat of closure by the country’s constitutional court over alleged ties to terrorism activities, which it categorically denies.4 On 25 April, less than three weeks before the 14 May election, Turkey arrested 110 HDP top officials, as well as pro-Kurdish lawyers, journalists, and artists, in a move that critics argue is an “intimidation tactic before election.”5

Amid the ongoing crackdown and the hostile rhetoric against Kurdish politicians and activists by the AKP and far-right political parties, 86 attacks against HDP affiliates by armed nationalists and mobs have been recorded by ACLED since 2018. This far eclipses the number of political violence events targeted at any other political party in Turkey during the similar period, accounting for half of such violence (see graph below). This includes the June 2021 killing of a woman HDP member at the party’s provincial headquarters in Izmir, and the stabbing of another HDP member in December 2021 in Istanbul. In the run-up to the election, the Green Left Party – under whose banner the HDP is running in the parliamentary elections – has been the target of a few attacks, including a knife attack on a parliamentary candidate in Edrine on 2 May.

Hawkish Regional Policies in Northern Iraq and Syria

The crackdown on Kurdish political opposition has coincided with the intensification of Turkish military offensives against armed Kurdish groups, increasingly beyond Turkish borders in northern Iraq and Syria. While hostilities with the PKK peaked on Turkish soil between 2015 and 2016 following the breakdown of the peace process, the Turkish military has successfully pushed the conflict outside Turkish borders ever since. Turkish operations in northern Iraq have gained steam in recent years, with the military expanding its areas of operation further south using sophisticated weapons such as drones. Aiming to weaken Kurdish forces along the Turkish-Syrian border, Turkish military has also launched three large-scale operations in northern Syria since 2016, taking control of a swathe of territory along the border. Turkey views the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (QSD) as an extension of the PKK.

Following the February earthquakes, the PKK announced a temporary one-sided ceasefire to facilitate the rescue work, which it then extended until after the election. Inside Turkey, since the February earthquake, only 10 events involving PKK forces were reported between February-April, marking a decrease of 37% compared to the same period in 2022. The PKK seems to have made the political calculation to remain largely inactive in the run-up to the election in order to avoid an escalation in Turkey that could play in favor of the ruling government by stirring up nationalist sentiment among Turkish voters.6 

Nonetheless, the Turkish military has continued to target PKK forces in northern Iraq. Violence was significantly higher during the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in the previous year, although the trend was reversed in April since Turkey has not yet launched its annual spring operation (see graph below). This may be related to calculations that demonstrating Turkish military strength closer to the election date is politically more beneficial to the ruling party. On 7 April, a drone strike presumably carried out by Turkish forces targeted the convoy of the commander of the Syrian QSD forces in the Iraqi province of Sulaymaniya, although no one was harmed. Turkey has officially denied responsibility for the attack, but QSD accuses Erdogan of attempting to use the attack to boost his support in the lead-up to the elections.7 

In Syria, the diplomatic rapprochement between Turkey and Syria led to a lull in Turkish operations against Kurdish forces on Syrian soil between January and April 2023. The number of political violence events involving Turkish troops in Syria was over 60% lower in the first four months of 2023 compared to the similar period the year prior (see graph below). At the end of 2022, there were fears of another ground operation into Syria after Ankara attributed responsibility for a November bombing in Istanbul to QSD.8 However, Russia has continued to push for normalization of ties between the two neighboring countries. Assad has thus far refused to hand Erdogan a political gift by meeting him before the elections, though diplomacy has continued to make headway. For Erdogan, an agreement with Damascus could lead to coordinated actions against Kurdish forces and simultaneously allow his government to take steps regarding the return of Syrian refugees to satisfy the populist hope. The refugee issue has turned into a political liability for the government, as Syrian refugees have faced increasing public resentment amid deepening economic woes. ACLED records nearly 20 attacks targeting Syrian refugees since 2019.

A watershed election

Observers have said the upcoming elections may be above all a vote on Erdogan’s “heavy-handed one-man rule.”9 Erdogan has purged many state institutions, including the courts, law enforcement agencies and civil service, stacking them with loyalists,10 and the country has witnessed a “democratic backsliding.”11 The opposition has  vowed to reinstate the parliamentary system and strengthen the rule of law.12 Kilicdaroglu, who currently maintains a slight edge over the incumbent Erdogan in the polls, has secured the support of the HDP, which has not fielded a candidate and has instead called on its supporters to vote for the opposition leader.13 HDP’s mainly Kurdish supporters helped the opposition to win mayoral elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019.14 Therefore, Erdogan’s sweeping crackdown on the Kurdish political movement may come to change his political fate.

If Kilicdaroglu wins the presidential election, Kurdish-dominated parties in Turkey may receive some breathing room. Kilicdaroglu has vowed to release Demirtas and other HDP politicians from prison, arguing that there can be a political solution to the Kurdish issue.15 Yet, he will have to reconcile conflicting interests of the ideologically diverse forces in his alliance, including his far-right nationalist ally, the Good (Iyi) Party, which has so far rejected to talk to HDP.16

Furthermore, given the military success of Turkish armed forces in increasingly pushing the PKK out of Turkey and further away from Turkish borders, Kilicdaroglu will likely have to maintain a firm commitment to the preservation of national security. He has stressed that he will not negotiate with PKK’s leader, who he views as an “illegitimate” actor.17 Positive steps at home toward the Kurdish issue may help to de-escalate the conflict abroad, although much will depend on PKK’s stance. Kilicdaroglu, who has made a campaign promise to send Syrian refugees back within two years of the election, will follow Erdogan’s footsteps and continue Turkey’s rapprochement with Assad.

Yet, it is still too early to write Erdogan off. He may still pull the many levers of power that are available to him to ensure he remains in power. Already his grip over the judiciary has handed him an advantage, by banning Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu from politics.18 A major security-related development right before the first or the potential second round of elections can further be used as a tool to drum up support for Erdogan. Furthermore, most polls put the AKP-led alliance a few points ahead of the opposition coalition in the parliamentary election, which would enable Erdogan to campaign on stability in a potential presidential run-off vote.19 Even if the incumbent president loses the election, many predict that he will not relinquish power without a fight, and may push for the cancellation of the results. This may lead to widespread demonstrations and unrest in the increasingly polarized Turkish society, where politics has evolved into a very personal affair for many.20

Visuals in this report were produced by Ciro Murillo

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Regional Overview: Asia-Pacific | April 2023 https://acleddata.com/2023/05/05/regional-overview-asia-pacific-april-2023/ Fri, 05 May 2023 17:15:50 +0000 https://acleddata.com/?p=49714 Analysis of ACLED data for April on political violence and protest trends across the United States and Canada, highlighting potential early warning signs for closer monitoring.

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Regional Overview
Asia-Pacific
April 2023

Posted: 5 May 2023

Myanmar: Deadliest military airstrike since the coup carried out in Sagaing region

April was the deadliest month in Myanmar for military airstrikes targeting civilians since the military coup. On 11 April, around 170 people, including dozens of women and children, were reportedly killed in a military airstrike in Kanbalu township in Sagaing region. The airstrike targeted villagers as they gathered to mark the opening of a new office of the People’s Administration Team (Pa Ah Pha) under the National Unity Government (NUG) in Pa Zi Gyi village.1 The military reportedly dropped two bombs on the area from a fighter jet before opening fire on the crowd using a Mi-35 helicopter gunship.2 Over a week after the initial attack, the military dropped six bombs on the village from a fighter jet. No villagers were injured as most were still in hiding after the previous attack.3 The military claimed that the airstrikes targeted the People’s Defense Force, which it claimed was present.4 The military has increasingly resorted to airstrikes targeting civilians as it fails to consolidate control over the country amid ongoing anti-coup resistance.

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Thailand: Resistance fighter killed after being returned to Myanmar by Thai immigration officials

Immigration authorities in Thailand arrested three members of the Lion Battalion, an armed resistance group in Myanmar, when they tried to seek medical treatment in Mae Sot, Thailand for battle injuries suffered by one of the members. While attempting to escape during the handover to the Myanmar military-backed Karen Border Guard Force on 4 April, one of the three members was shot and later died of his injuries.5 While the status of two other members is unknown, they were believed to be held at a military interrogation center in Mawlamyine township in Mon state in Myanmar.6 The actions of the Thai authorities were met with condemnation by local and international human rights groups, who have noted the growing harassment faced by people from Myanmar who fled to Thailand in the aftermath of the military coup.7 The forced repatriation comes amid increasing numbers of raids and arrests of people from Myanmar by Thai officials in Mae Sot.8 In late March, Thai immigration raided a building housing Myanmar nationals searching for people they believed to be connected to the People’s Defense Force.

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Thailand: Spike in separatist violence precedes May elections

Malay Muslim separatist violence increased in Thailand’s Deep South in April. On 13 April, separatists fired on police in Narathiwat province, injuring three officers. The following day, separatists clashed with military and police forces at six security bases across the Deep South. On 20 April, a separatist-planted explosion occurred while police were on patrol in Narathiwat, killing one officer and seriously injuring another. Amid the upswing in separatist violence, Barisan Revolusi Nasional Melayu Patani, the largest separatist group, released a video calling for the prosecution of those responsible for the 2004 Tak Bai massacre that saw dozens die at the hands of security forces, as the case is about to expire.9 The uptick in separatist violence comes as Thailand prepares for general elections on 14 May. Among the opposition parties, the Move Forward party has called for the demilitarization of the Deep South.10 Prior to the elections, anti-government demonstrations opposing the role of the military and monarchy in Thai politics have been on the wane due to judicial harassment. Still, the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship led an annual gathering in Bangkok on 10 April to commemorate the 13th anniversary of the dispersion of the 2010 red-shirt demonstrations.11 Currently, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leader of the Pheu Thai party and the daughter of the red-shirt-backed Thaksin Shinawatra, is leading in the polls.12

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Afghanistan: Key Islamic State leader killed in Taliban operations

The Taliban continued to carry out raids in April targeting the Islamic State (IS), reportedly killing over a dozen IS militants across Afghanistan. Amid these raids, the United States claimed that the Taliban had killed the mastermind of the IS attack on the Kabul airport during the US withdrawal in August 2021.13 However, US-based reports have found that despite the Taliban’s ongoing crackdown on IS, Afghanistan has become a staging ground for potential IS attacks in Asia and Europe. The Taliban has rejected this assessment.14 Meanwhile, the UN is considering suspending its operations in Afghanistan after the Taliban banned women from working for the organization. UN officials are meeting in Qatar in early May to discuss key issues, including human rights, in the country; the Taliban was not invited to the meeting.15

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India: Deadly ‘Red Corridor’ violence reported during Tactical Counter-Offensive Campaign

Clashes in India between Naxal-Maoist rebels and Indian security forces continued at elevated levels in April, following increased activity in March. On 26 April, Naxal-Maoist rebels targeted a police convoy with an IED in Chhattisgarh state, reportedly killing at least 10 security personnel. This was the deadliest attack on security forces in the ‘Red Corridor’ in two years.16 Earlier in the month, security forces reportedly killed five high-ranking CPI (Maoist) cadres, including two special area committee members, in an exchange of fire in Jharkhand state. The ‘Red Corridor’ typically sees an increase in armed activity between March-June every year, when Naxal-Moist rebels carry out their annual Tactical Counter-Offensive Campaign, increasing recruitment and offensive activities before the onset of monsoon season. The escalation in violence also comes when the Central Reserve Police Force has established several new forward operating bases in former rebel strongholds.17

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Indonesia: Civilians at risk amid deadly clashes in Papua

Clashes in Indonesia between state forces and the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) in Central Papua and Highland Papua provinces continued at elevated levels in April as the government seeks to rescue a New Zealand pilot held captive by the rebels since February. The authorities announced at least seven soldiers died in the recent clashes,18 while the rebels claimed to have killed 15 military officers.19 Since the beginning of the year, ACLED has recorded more than a dozen armed clashes between state forces and the TPNPB. The violence in Papua has also directly impacted civilians, with the TPNPB implicated in over a dozen events targeting civilians in 2023. The TPNPB has stated that it would target all non-Papuans and foreigners entering Papua until the Indonesian government grants independence to Papua.20 Meanwhile, military and police forces have raided villages in Papua looking for TPNPB members, causing many villagers to flee their homes.21 Civilians suspected of involvement in the TPNPB’s activities have been targeted by state forces, with state forces carrying out at least 10 separate attacks targeting Papuan civilians in 2023.

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More Regional Overviews

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Regional Overview: Latin America & the Caribbean | April 2023 https://acleddata.com/2023/05/05/regional-overview-latin-america-the-caribbean-april-2023/ Fri, 05 May 2023 16:26:54 +0000 https://acleddata.com/?p=49707 Analysis of ACLED data for April on political violence and protest trends across Latin American and the Caribbean, highlighting potential early warning signs for closer monitoring.

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Regional Overview
Latin America & the Caribbean
April 2023

Posted: 5 May 2023

Haiti: Deadly confrontations between self-defense groups and gangs amid ongoing gang turf wars

In April, gangs increasingly came into direct confrontation with self-defense groups and unarmed civilians attempting to resist gang offensives. In Cabaret commune, Ouest department, the Titanyen gang, supported by members of the Base 5 Secondes and Canaan gangs, carried out several attacks in Source Matelas, with preliminary reports reporting the killing of at least 100 people. The gangs reportedly launched retaliatory attacks against civilians who have blocked roads since November 2022 to push back gang offensives.1 Elsewhere, in the center of Port-au-Prince, local residents lynched 13 detained gang members that were being transferred by police forces following a clash in the Debussy neighborhood. Further violence was reported in the Ouest and Nippes departments throughout the month, leaving more than a dozen gang members dead. Since January 2023, gangs have increasingly responded to vigilante activity with retaliatory attacks targeting civilians, contributing to Haiti’s deteriorating security.2

Meanwhile, members of the Brooklyn gang – affiliated with the G-Pep gang alliance – clashed with the G-9-affiliated Belekou and Boston gangs in Cité Soleil, reportedly leaving 70 people dead. The clashes started on 14 April and lasted for over six consecutive days as part of rivalries between the two gang alliances over the control of Cité Soleil. The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres reiterated a call for the deployment of an international armed force to address surging gang violence.3

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Honduras: Rival criminal groups clash inside prisons in three departments

On 8 April, clashes between incarcerated members of the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18 (B-18) broke out in four detention centers located in El Paraiso, Francisco Morazán, and Santa Bárbara departments, leading to at least one fatality. Authorities claim that the gangs communicated with criminal cells operating outside the prisons in an attempt to destabilize national security.4 The incidents prompted President Xiomara Castro to launch an intervention plan, which includes new surveillance systems, the dismissals of corrupted prison guards, relocation of inmates affiliated with organized crime, and measures to reduce prison overcrowding.5 Despite the launching of this plan, clashes inside prisons continued throughout the month, driving heightened levels of prison riots and clashes, which thus far in 2023, have surpassed levels recorded in the whole of 2022. Criminal groups have controlled Honduras’ main detention centers amid weaknesses in the country’s penitentiary system, overcrowding, and the slow processing of criminal cases by judicial institutions.6 Jailed gang members are reported to communicate with members outside jails and participate in illegal activities such as extortion.7 

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Colombia: The killing of social leaders continues amid ‘Total Peace’ negotiations

Despite the ‘Total Peace’ efforts proposed by President Gustavo Petro’s administration, armed groups continue to fight for control of illicit economies, especially in remote rural areas. In their competition over territorial control, armed groups reportedly killed at least 18 social leaders in April.8 Violence targeting social leaders increased notably in the Antioquia department, where the Gulf Clan has a significant foothold and with whom the government suspended ceasefire negotiations on 19 March.9 Colombian social leaders champion the rights of local communities and their access to public resources and lands. Due to their public role, they often fall victim to armed groups seeking to stifle dissent in rural areas.10 The government continued in its efforts to negotiate with armed groups. On 16 April, the Central General Staff Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia dissident group joined negotiations for an eventual demobilization of its factions.11 Since President Petro took office, he has sought to mitigate armed conflict in the country through the ‘Total Peace’ process, which includes dialogues on ceasefire agreements between armed groups and the government.12

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Mexico: Environmental activists and members of Indigenous communities subject to persisting violence

Environmental activists continue to be the targets of violence in Mexico, with the killing of two activists recorded in April. Thus far in 2023, ACLED records at least seven events of violence targeting this group, which represents a twofold increase compared to the same period last year. Armed suspects kidnapped and killed an environmental activist of the Nahua Indigenous community in Chinicuila, Michoacán state. In this state, Indigenous communities have denounced irregularities in the granting of mining concessions by the government, as well as the presence of criminal groups involved in illegal mining activities.13 Meanwhile, in Oaxaca state, two gunmen killed an Indigenous activist from the Zapotec community who had opposed the construction of infrastructure projects such as the Tehuantepec Isthmus railways.14 According to local organizations, more than half of the aggressions targeting environmental defenders reported in Mexico in 2022 affected members of Indigenous communities.15 Similar attacks have occurred across Latin America and the Caribbean region. In April, ACLED records the killing of two Colombian activists who have advocated for animal rights and opposed extractive activities in rural areas in Antioquia and Norte de Santander departments.16 Thus far in 2023, ACLED records over a dozen targeted attacks against environmental defenders across the region.

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Guatemala: Unidentified suspects attack a mayoral candidate in Suchitepequez department ahead of the general elections

On 22 April, unidentified suspects ran over a mayoral candidate for the Nosotros political party while he was hanging a poster to promote his candidacy in San Pedro Cutzan, Suchitepequez. The victim denounced the incident as a targeted attack against him and called for investigations to identify the perpetrators and motivations behind the attack.17 The attack takes place ahead of Guatemala general elections scheduled on 25 June, which encompasses the election of the president, congress representatives, and municipal authorities, among others. It also follows the signing of the National Agreement on 11 April by 27 of the 30 political parties participating in the elections, who pledged to promote a violence-free campaign.18 Thus far in 2023, ACLED records at least two armed incidents targeting candidates, representing a decrease compared to the previous 2019 general elections, with at least six events recorded between January and April. Despite lower levels of violence, this year’s electoral cycle has been marked by tensions amid widespread demonstrations in February and March, sparked by the electoral court’s decision not to allow the registering of the Movement for the Liberation of the Peoples’ candidate.19

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More Regional Overviews

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Regional Overview: Europe & Central Asia | April 2023 https://acleddata.com/2023/05/05/regional-overview-europe-central-asia-april-2023/ Fri, 05 May 2023 09:33:29 +0000 https://acleddata.com/?p=49664 Analysis of ACLED data for April on political violence and protest trends across Europe & Central Asia, highlighting potential early warning signs for closer monitoring.

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Regional Overview
Europe & Central Asia
April 2023

Posted: 5 May 2023

Ukraine: Russian air campaign intensifies

Russian strikes continued hitting civilian targets across Ukraine, killing over a hundred civilians in April. In the Donetsk region, missile strikes on Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk on 2 and 14 April, respectively, killed over 20 civilians. Meanwhile, massive Russian airstrikes occurred on 27 and 28 April targeting the Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kyiv, and Cherkasy regions. In the latter region, a Russian missile hit a multi-story residential building in Uman, reportedly killing 23 people – the deadliest attack in the region since the start of the Russian invasion. Meanwhile, probable Ukrainian shelling led to 18 reported civilian fatalities in occupied Donetsk city on 6 and 28 April. 

Overall, the levels of violence in Ukraine remained at similar levels compared to March, in line with the ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) assessment. While the number of recorded armed clashes decreased significantly, daily fighting continued, concentrating on the Kreminna-Svatove-Kupiansk in the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions as well as north and west of the occupied Donetsk city. The Wagner Group flanked by regular Russian units pressed Ukrainian forces toward high-rise western outskirts of Bakhmut in street battles, also leveling apartment blocks with airstrikes.1 The decrease in direct clashes was offset by an overall increase in air and drone strikes recorded in April, particularly in the Donetsk region, but also in the Chernihiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions. Additionally, Ukrainian forces increased offensive operations in the second half of the month, reportedly advancing positions in the Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions.

For more information, see ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor

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Armenia-Azerbaijan: Baku seals off Lachin corridor

Azerbaijan continued to assert control over the Lachin corridor linking Artsakh to Armenia, which falls within the remit of the Russian peacekeepers under the 2020 ceasefire agreement.2 On 23 April, Azerbaijan installed a checkpoint on a newly-built bridge over the Hakari river on the border with Armenia in the immediate vicinity of the Russian peacekeepers’ checkpoint, thus blocking the road meant to replace the previously used Goris-Stepanakert route.3 Azerbaijan claimed it had installed the checkpoint in order to stop Armenian military supplies to the region, as well as in response to an alleged movement of checkpoint infrastructure by Armenia in the area on 22 April.4 The move was condemned by the United States, the European Union, and Russia, with the latter replacing the commander of its peacekeeping contingent in the region.5 Following the installation of the checkpoint, self-professed environmental activists, who had been blocking the Lachin corridor near Stepanakert/Khankendi since 12 December 2022, suspended their protest on 28 April.6 Earlier in the month, on 4 April, they denied passage to 23 of 27 civilians attempting to return to Artsakh.7 Azerbaijan regained control of parts of the unrecognized ethnic Armenian-majority Artsakh Republic and adjacent areas after a 44-day war in 2020.

Amid Azerbaijan’s ongoing assertion of control along the Lachin corridor, the number of armed clashes on the line of contact between Azerbaijani forces and Artsakh as well as Armenian forces halved following a spike in the previous month. The deadliest incident occurred near the Armenian village of Tegh in the Syunik region on the border with Azerbaijan on 11 April. Azerbaijani troops advanced toward the village on 30 March after their takeover of a section of the Goris-Stepanakert highway in Azerbaijan’s Lachin region as part of rerouting traffic between Armenia and Artsakh.8 The shootout over position engineering works performed by both sides reportedly left four Armenian and three Azerbaijani servicemen dead.9     

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Kazakhstan: Protests against unemployment turn violent

Socio-economic protests again increased in oil-rich western Kazakhstan, especially in the Mangystau region. In early April, laid-off extractive industry workers started protesting in Zhanaozen, demanding stable employment. After being assaulted by unidentified perpetrators, the protesters moved to the capital Astana on 10 April to press their demands. The following day, riot police detained about 80 protesters, injuring some of them in the process and triggering solidarity protests and strikes across western Kazakhstan, which led to the subsequent release of the protesters without charges. Demonstrations frequently erupt in Zhanaozen – where the Ozenmunaigaz oil company is the largest employer10 – over jobs and cost of living. In January 2022, demonstrations against a fuel price hike degenerated into nationwide unrest resulting in over 200 civilian fatalities.  

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Kosovo: Vehicles set ablaze and elections boycotted amid ongoing tensions in the north

Tensions persisted in northern Kosovo over the course of the month. Unidentified perpetrators set fire to at least eight vehicles at four locations in the Serb-majority Mitrovica region on 1 and 15 April, continuing the trend observed during the previous month when at least seven vehicles were torched across the region. On 2 April, unidentified individuals threw a shock bomb at the police registration office in North Mitrovica. The arson attacks may be linked to attempts to discourage local residents from transitioning to Kosovan license plates. This issue has been one of the sources of contention between Kosovan central authorities and areas populated by ethnic Serbs for over a decade and led to an escalation in tensions in late 2022. Under an emergency deal reached in November 2022, Kosovo law enforcement refrains from sanctioning the owners of vehicles with plates issued in Serbia, whereas the latter does not hand out new ones to Kosovo residents.11   

Ongoing tensions also saw ethnic Serbs boycotting en masse snap mayoral elections on 23 April in four municipalities in northern Kosovo that had seen ethnic Serbian incumbents resign in November 2022 amid the standoff over license plates. Despite a turnout of under 4%, the winners from ethnic Albanian parties will assume office as there is no threshold for the polls to pass.12 Furthermore, about a thousand ethnic Serbs from Zerovnica protested on 12 April the shooting by the Kosovo police two days earlier of a fellow resident of the village who had allegedly attempted to smuggle goods from Serbia. One of the four suspended officers involved in the incident was charged with attempted murder.13 Police checks in northern Kosovo increased recently, especially near illegal crossings between Kosovo and Serbia. Recent EU-brokered rapprochement between Serbia and Kosovo was met with protests in both countries. Albanian-majority Kosovo seceded from Serbia in 2008 after a civil war a decade earlier.

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Eastern Europe: Farmers protest cheap Ukrainian grain

Farmers in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia took to the streets in April to protest falling revenues due to cheap Ukrainian grains flooding local markets rather than transiting to destinations outside the EU. The EU scrapped tariffs on Ukrainian exports in 2022 and has since facilitated their transit to other parts of the world in the wake of the Russian blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Coupled with Brussels’s refusal to reimpose tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural goods, the protests prompted the resignation of Polish Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk and subsequent temporary bans on imports of Ukrainian grains imposed by Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. At the end of the month, the European Commission negotiated a deal offering financial support for affected farmers and enacting measures to ensure the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products through the five countries to preserve the tariff-free trade regime.

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See more

For additional resources and in-depth updates on the conflict in Ukraine, check our dedicated Ukraine Crisis Hub.

More Regional Overviews

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Regional Overview: United States & Canada | April 2023 https://acleddata.com/2023/05/05/regional-overview-united-states-april-2023/ Fri, 05 May 2023 09:00:32 +0000 https://acleddata.com/?p=49660 Analysis of ACLED data for April on political violence and protest trends across the United States and Canada, highlighting potential early warning signs for closer monitoring.

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Regional Overview
United States & Canada
April 2023

Posted: 5 May 2023

United States: Ongoing far-right militia, militant social movement, and white supremacist training events and other activities

Far-right, militant social movement, and white supremacist activity decreased by a third in April compared to the month prior, largely due to a decline in Patriot Front’s banner drop and training events. In Arizona, far-right activity declined by roughly a quarter, despite the Lions of Liberty, Maricopa County Preparedness Team, Chino Valley Preparedness Team, Yavapai County Preparedness Team, and the Verde Valley Preparedness Team holding multiple information and recruitment meetings. Veterans on Patrol (VOP) activity significantly decreased, with the group conducting five patrols near the border with Mexico around Sasabe, Arizona. On one patrol, the group was accompanied by Idaho State Senator Phil Hart of the Republican Party, marking the first time an elected official has been recorded at a VOP patrol since ACLED began collecting data in 2020. 

Separately, members of the Proud Boys also vandalized the windows of a Lutheran church in Fresno, California, which had received numerous threats over its pro-LGBTQ+ stance. Patriot Front’s reported banner drop and training activities significantly decreased in April compared to March. The white nationalist group dropped banners across at least four states and held sparring training sessions in at least eight states, including Kansas, marking the group’s first recorded activity in the state. Patriot Front members also posted propaganda to their channels documenting their assistance in tornado disaster recovery efforts in Mississippi and Arkansas.

Meanwhile, demonstrators associated with white supremacy and White Lives Matter engaged in physical altercations during an anti-LGBTQ+ demonstration in Washington, DC. Members of the New Columbia Movement and Protect Texas Kids also participated in an anti-LGBTQ+ demonstration in Fort Worth, Texas. The Goyim Defense League distributed antisemitic fliers in eight states, with more than a third of these incidents taking place in Florida. In addition, the Highland Division, a Scottish white supremacist group, and the Nationalist Social Club-131 (NSC-131) separately distributed antisemitic fliers. NSC-131 members also held a demonstration in Maine in support of white supremacy.

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United States: Gun control demonstrations increase following several recent mass shootings

In April, demonstrations calling for gun reform increased fourfold compared to the previous month, largely in response to mass shootings, especially the 27 March Covenant School shooting in Nashville, Tennessee. This shooting triggered demonstrations across the country, resulting in the highest level of gun control events in a single month since the June 2022 rallies following the Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde, Texas in late May 2022. More than half of all of the demonstrations in April were organized by Students Demand Action, a youth-led group campaigning to end gun violence, and around 13% of demonstrations calling for gun control occurred in Tennessee — where the Covenant School shooting took place — making up the largest share of any state during the month. Following a 30 March demonstration at the state capitol, the Tennessee House of Representatives called for the expulsions of State Representatives Justin Jones, Justin Pearson, and Gloria Johnson of the Democratic Party due to their participation. The House voted to expel State Representatives Jones and Pearson, but they were both later reappointed by their respective local legislative bodies.1

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Canada: Labor-related demonstrations spike due to federal government workers’ strike

Labor-related demonstrations in Canada more than doubled compared to the previous month. On 19 April, more than 150,000 federal government workers began a strike to call for higher wages and a universal work-from-home policy.2 This strike, led by the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC), drove the highest levels of labor-related demonstrations since ACLED began collecting data on Canada in 2021. This single-month spike is over 30% higher than the February 2022 ‘Freedom Convoy’ demonstrations against COVID-19 mandates. Demonstrations led by the PSAC occurred in every province and territory in Canada, with the highest concentration of demonstrations reported in Ontario, where nearly a third of all PSAC pickets took place. After close to two weeks of strike action, the PSAC and the federal government reached a tentative agreement on 1 May, ending the strike.3

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See the Codebook and the User Guide for an overview of ACLED’s core methodology. For additional documentation, check the Resource Library. Region-specific methodology briefs can be accessed below.

Links:

More Regional Overviews

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Regional Overview: Middle East | April 2023 https://acleddata.com/2023/05/04/regional-overview-middle-east-april-2023/ Thu, 04 May 2023 22:06:12 +0000 https://acleddata.com/?p=49654 Analysis of ACLED data for April on political violence and protest trends across the Middle East, highlighting potential early warning signs for closer monitoring.

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Regional Overview
Middle East
April 2023

Posted: 4 May 2023

Yemen: Violence drops to lowest wartime levels amid hopes for a renewed truce

Last month, political violence in Yemen dropped by 30% compared to the month prior, reaching the lowest level since the regionalization of the war in March 2015. This steep decrease coincided with a five-day Saudi and Omani delegation visit led by the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen to the capital city of Sanaa, amidst Oman-brokered peace negotiations between Houthi de facto authorities and Riyadh.1 Although no deal was announced following the visit, signs of detente materialized in the following days with the second-largest exchange of detainees between the conflict parties.2 Ongoing negotiations center on a reopening of Yemen’s ports and airports, the payment of civil servants salaries in Houthi-controlled areas, direct talks between the Houthis and the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG), and a two-year political transition.3 According to ACLED’s CAST predictions, the decline in violence associated with the peace negotiations is likely to continue in May 2023. Yemen spiraled into a civil war in 2014, when the Houthis ousted the IRG from Sanaa. The conflict was regionalized in March 2015 by the intervention of the Saudi-led coalition in support of the IRG.

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Iraq: Turkey targets Syrian Kurdish commander in Iraq amid increased airstrikes on PKK forces

In April, Turkey escalated its operations in northern Iraq targeting objectives linked with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Notably, on 7 April, suspected Turkish drone strikes targeted the convoy of Mazlum Abdi – a commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (QSD) considered by Turkish authorities a “terrorist” and a PKK leader.4 Abdi – a Washington ally in countering the Islamic State (IS) – was traveling with at least three US personnel near the Sulaymaniyya airport. The drone strikes resulted in no casualties,5 and came a few days after Turkey imposed a three-month flight ban on Sulaymaniyya’s airport because of suspected PKK infiltrations.6 The presidency of the Iraqi federal government condemned Ankara’s drone attack,7 while protests erupted in Erbil and Sulaymaniyya calling for the withdrawal of Turkish forces. The drone attack took place amid a 20% increase in Turkish airstrikes targeting the PKK in northern Iraq, following an upward trend that began in March 2023 after a lull in Turkish activity caused by the February earthquakes. Turkey and the PKK are engaged in a long-standing conflict over ethnic rights in southeastern Turkey and across the border in northern Iraq.

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Turkey: New trends in election-related violence

Political violence increased in Turkey in April by 30% compared to the month prior, driven by election-related events. New typologies of violence emerged ahead of upcoming elections, including the targeting of electoral offices and political candidates across Turkey. Unidentified gunmen carried out drive-by shootings targeting electoral offices belonging to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its main rival the Republican People’s Party (CHP) in Uskudar and Atasehir districts, resulting in no casualties. Meanwhile, rioters with unclear affiliations attacked election offices belonging to the CHP and the Green Left Party (Yesil Sol Parti) in Beyoglu and Efeler districts, while others physically assaulted members of the Iyi Party while handing out election brochures. Rioters also attacked the convoy of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival for the presidency, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, while he campaigned in the southeastern city of Adiyaman. Turkey’s general elections will take place on 14 May, and voters will select a new president and 600 members of parliament. Ahead of the previous general elections, in June 2018, ACLED recorded a 90% increase of political violence compared to the month prior.

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Syria: Increased targeting of civilians amid surge in IS activity

IS engaged in heightened levels of attacks against civilians in April, continuing an upward trend that began in March. Compared to the monthly average for 2022, IS carried out twice as many attacks on civilians in April 2023. Most attacks targeted civilians searching for truffles in the Syrian desert.8 Since the start of the truffle season, which runs from February to April, ACLED records over 80 events targeting truffle hunters and more than 300 reported fatalities — including civilians and pro-regime fighters — mostly resulting from landmines or direct IS attacks. The number of fatalities during this season marks it as the deadliest since IS began attacking truffle hunters in 2019.9 The heightened levels of civilian targeting comes amidst a general surge of IS activity in Syria. In April 2023, ACLED also records a rise in IS attacks on pro-regime forces, pro-Iran militias, and QSD forces in Homs, al-Hasaka, al-Raqqa, and Aleppo provinces. Since the territorial defeat of IS in Syria in 2019, the remaining IS cells have largely engaged in ambushes, armed attacks, and explosions against regime and QSD forces, and civilians in the west Euphrates region and the Syrian desert.

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Palestine and Israel: Violence drops during the religious season despite incidents in East Jerusalem

April 2023 opened amid fears that the overlap of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, the Jewish holiday of Passover, and the Christian holiday of Easter could lead to an escalation of violence in Israel and Palestine.10 However, compared to March, levels of political violence only slightly increased in Israel, while they dropped by over 10% in Palestine despite a spate of Ramadan-related violence in East Jerusalem. As recorded in previous years, violence erupted following incidents around the al-Aqsa compound. On 5 April, Israeli forces raided the religious site injuring at least 12 unarmed worshippers and detaining 400 others. Due to the politico-religious significance of al-Aqsa, Arab ‘lone wolves’ responded to the raid with multiple forms of violence. On 7 April, a car-ramming attack killed an Italian tourist and injured seven others in Tel Aviv city. On the same day, a Palestinian gunman shot at a passing settler car in Nablus, killing a British-Israeli mother and her two daughters. Meanwhile, Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants fired rockets from the Gaza Strip towards Israel, with shelling also coming from Lebanon. Israeli forces retaliated by shelling Gaza, while raids continued in the West bank, resulting in over eight Palestinian rioters and militants killed.

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See the Codebook and the User Guide for an overview of ACLED’s core methodology. For additional documentation, check the Resource Library. Region-specific methodology briefs can be accessed below.

Links:

More Regional Overviews

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Regional Overview: Africa | April 2023 https://acleddata.com/2023/05/04/regional-overview-africa-april-2023/ Thu, 04 May 2023 21:47:57 +0000 https://acleddata.com/?p=49651 Analysis of ACLED data for April on political violence and protest trends across Africa, highlighting potential early warning signs for closer monitoring.

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Regional Overview
Africa
April 2023

Posted: 4 May 2023

Sudan: Conflict breaks out between the SAF and RSF

Fighting erupted in Sudan on 15 April between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), aligned with the de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, popularly known as Hemedti. In the week following the outbreak of hostilities, political violence in Sudan reached levels over four times higher than the weekly average for the past year. Since fighting broke out, over 50% of battles were fought in Khartoum, with clashes outside the capital centered in urban areas along major roadways, especially east-west corridors from the state of Kassala to West Darfur. In the second week of fighting, battles between the RSF and SAF broke out for the first time in South Kordofan and West Kordofan states. Violence also escalated towards the end of the month in El Geneina, West Darfur state. Battles between the SAF and RSF have constituted 80% of all political violence events recorded in Sudan since 15 April and over 700 fatalities have been reported, with many civilians caught in the crossfire amid intense urban fighting (for more on the conflict in Sudan, see Fact Sheet: Conflict Surges in Sudan). The United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM) cited that the fighting has displaced over 300,000 individuals since 15 April, with more than 60,000 fleeing to neighboring countries.1

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Ethiopia: Demonstrations break out in Amhara over federal government plans to re-absorb regional forces

On 6 April, the federal government announced a plan to reintegrate regional special forces into the Ethiopian National Defense Force, federal police, or state police, triggering demonstrations in the Amhara region. While Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claims the integration will create stability, critics view the move as a way to shrink the power of individual regions.2 Demonstrators opposed the plan due to deteriorating trust in the federal government and concerns over potential attacks.3 They also called for the release of detainees and the government to stop “the abuse against Amharas.”4 Demonstrations in Amhara reached their highest levels in over a year and contributed to a more than doubling of demonstrations across Ethiopia compared to the monthly average over the preceding year. The unrest in Amhara indicates the growing political divisions in Amhara between the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) and the Amhara PP and Oromia PP (for more details, see EPO Weekly: 26 March-1 April 2022). This discontent with the ruling PP has grown amid ongoing attacks against ethnic Amhara civilians in the Oromia region, frequent road closures, and the demolition of houses (for more details on the trends of violence against civilians in Oromia region, see EPO Monthly: June 2022; on the recent closure of roads, see EPO Weekly: 11-17 February 2023).

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Togo: A rare JNIM attack in Tone prefecture, amid an increasingly deadly Islamist insurgency

On 20 April, al-Qaeda-affiliated Jamaa Nusra al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) attacked civilians in the Tone prefecture, reportedly killing six people. The attack marks a rare incursion into Tone, which only accounts for 10% of political violence in Togo over the past year. Until now, political violence by JNIM has been concentrated in the Kpendjal prefecture, which accounts for nearly 70% of political violence in the past year. To date, 2023 has been particularly deadly. From January to April, ACLED records 74 reported fatalities, only four fatalities less than the total in 2022. JNIM operations in Togo began to increase in May 2022, when around 60 JNIM fighters attacked the Kpinkankandi military base in Kpendjal prefecture. While JNIM has been active in the littoral states for several years, JNIM expanded its operations into Benin and Togo in 2022, with violent events spiking in July. In a rare interview, President Faure Gnassingbé recognized this escalation of violence and claimed that around 40 soldiers and 100 civilians had been killed by Islamist armed groups in northern Togo.5

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Eswatini: Ongoing targeting of political party supporters

An armed group dressed in military uniforms, suspected to be military forces, attacked a former Swaziland Liberation Movement supporter in the vicinity of Mangwaneni after he attended a commemoration of the 12 April 1973 Decree banning political parties in Eswatini. The gunmen subjected the victim to physical abuse while questioning him about the location of political leaders and their firearms.6 On 12 April, to commemorate the ban, political activists submitted a petition at the United Nations office in Mbabane to urge intervention by the UN and persuade the government to end civilian targeting.7 Since the implementation of the 12 April 1973 Decree, political parties have been officially prohibited, and political gatherings require government approval.8 Violence escalated in 2022 and peaked in November following increased violence by a militant pro-democracy group called the Swaziland International Solidarity Forces, reprisals by state security forces, and violence carried out by unidentified armed groups. ACLED also records several civilian targeting events in the first quarter of 2023. Police and military forces are the most common aggressors in violence targeting civilians the preceding year, comprising nearly a third of civilian targeting events. After state security forces, the second most common violent actor includes unidentified armed groups, often with suspected links to political leaders or militant pro-democracy groups, and spontaneous rioters involved in mob violence, accounting for 25% and 29%, respectively.

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Chad: Cross-border violence from the Central African Republic

Last month, a Kodo militia – a Chadian armed group based in the Central African Republic (CAR) – crossed the border into the Monts de Lam department and attacked the civilians in the Danda area. The incursion by the Kodo militia initially targeted civilians, but led to clashes against local Fulani militiamen and the gendarmerie, resulting in over 20 reported fatalities. According to the governor of Monts de Lam, the Kodo militia crossed into Chad in order to instigate communal conflicts.9 The attack comes amid wider concerns about spillovers from the conflict in CAR. In February 2023, United States intelligence services warned Chadian authorities that the Wagner Group – the Russian private military company protecting the CAR government from rebel attacks – was attempting to destabilize the country by training militias near the CAR-Chad border.10 Several incidents of cross-border violence have occurred since October last year, when the Chadian military forces clashed with an unknown Chadian armed group, Wagner Group mercenaries, and CAR military forces in Lac Wey, Logone Occidental region.

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See more

See the Codebook and the User Guide for an overview of ACLED’s core methodology. For additional documentation, check the Resource Library. Region-specific methodology briefs can be accessed below.

Links:

For additional resources and in-depth updates on the latest political violence and protest trends, check our local observatories for Mozambique and Ethiopia, as well as our special Nigeria Election Violence Tracker project.

More Regional Overviews

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Ukraine Conflict Update: 15-21 April 2023 https://acleddata.com/2023/05/03/ukraine-conflict-update-15-21-april-2023/ Wed, 03 May 2023 17:56:05 +0000 https://acleddata.com/?p=49579 In the Donetsk region, Russian forces and Wagner Group continued their siege of Bakhmut and its environs, with Russian sources claiming that over 80% of the town was under Russian control as of 21 April.

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For more information, including previous situation summaries and an interactive dashboard, visit our Ukraine Conflict Monitor.

Situation Summary

In the Donetsk region, Russian forces and Wagner Group continued their siege of Bakhmut and its environs, with Russian sources claiming that over 80% of the town was under Russian control as of 21 April.1 Fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces also continued along the Kreminna-Svatove-Kupiansk line in the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions. Clashes resumed in the Zaporizhia region, with Russian forces reportedly advancing their positions near Huliaipole. Ukrainian forces may have established positions on the Russian-controlled eastern bank of the Dnipro river facing the recently liberated Kherson city, as well as on nearby islands in the Dnipro river delta.2

Russian forces continued to target civilian infrastructure with shelling, missile attacks, and drone strikes, killing over a dozen civilians in the Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhia regions. Russian drone strikes also targeted regions further from the frontline, including Odesa, Poltava, Vinnytisia, and Zhytomyr; Ukrainian forces intercepted several drones in the Kyiv region. 

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Fact Sheet: Conflict Surges in Sudan https://acleddata.com/2023/04/28/fact-sheet-conflict-surges-in-sudan/ Fri, 28 Apr 2023 16:03:29 +0000 https://acleddata.com/?p=49468 Since the start of the fighting in Sudan, ACLED has recorded almost 200 conflict incidents around the country, with more than 750 reported fatalities. Two-thirds of the clashes have taken place in cities of over 100,000 people.

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Fact Sheet: Conflict Surges in Sudan

Published: 28 April 2023
Updated: 5 May 2023

Key Trends
(15 April-3 May 2023)

  • Since fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on 15 April, ACLED has recorded over 190 political violence events around the country, including more than 160 battle events1 
    • From 15 April to 3 May, ACLED records a sevenfold increase in clashes compared to the same time period prior (during the first week of the conflict, clashes increased more than 1600% relative to the weekly average for the preceding year)
    • More than 750 fatalities have been reported since the start of the fighting
  • Conflict has been concentrated in Khartoum state, which has accounted for over 50% of all recorded political violence incidents since the start of the fighting
  • ACLED records at least 22 civilian targeting events during the reporting period, with over 70% occurring in Khartoum
  • The use of explosions/remote violence has reached its highest point in the past five years, with most of strikes conducted by the Sudanese Armed Forces in Khartoum
  • Over two-thirds of the fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces has taken place in cities of over 100,000 people
    • Battles outside Khartoum have centered in urban areas along major roadways, especially east-west corridors from Kassala to West Darfur
  • In West Darfur, fighting between the two sides triggered intercommunal clashes in El Geneina, with a fourfold increase in violence in the city during the second week of clashes compared to the week prior, resulting in dozens of reported fatalities

Overview

On 15 April, fighting erupted in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), aligned with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, popularly known as Hemedti. The clashes represented a definitive breakdown in the delicate power arrangement that had developed between al-Burhan and Hemedti since the removal of Sudan’s former leader, Omar al-Bashir, in April 2019.2 The recent hostilities come less than five months after a new framework agreement to relaunch the political process for Sudan’s transition to a civilian government. The SAF and RSF had shown little willingness to adhere to the framework, failing to agree on plans to integrate the RSF into the military, in what was a final blow to the political process to form a transitional civilian government.

Increased military exercises and rising tensions between SAF and RSF soldiers foreshadowed fighting in Khartoum in the weeks leading up to the confrontation.3 New security measures were also put in place before the onset of the conflict, including increased civilian inspections and frequent closures of roadways and bridges.4 Both al-Burhan and Hemedti made rival diplomatic missions to neighboring countries in recent months to solicit support – a clear indicator of the growing rifts despite the public facade of unity.5 This facade violently collapsed under the weight of these tensions on 15 April: during the following weeks, political violence in Sudan reached levels eight times higher than in the preceding weeks. Despite several ceasefires, the fighting continues unabated, and unless the current balance of power is disrupted in favor of one side, it is likely to continue.6

Civilians Caught in the Crossfire of Escalating Fighting Between the SAF and RSF 

Clashes between the SAF and RSF have constituted over 70% of all political violence events recorded in Sudan since 15 April. Although attacks using explosives and remote violence have been uncommon in Sudan, making up only 2% of political violence over the past 12 months, the most recent fighting has included frequent airstrikes and shelling incidents targeting military and civilian infrastructure, including hospitals. For example, SAF airstrikes have hit RSF bases in several areas, including the Kafouri area of Bahri, Omdurman, and multiple other areas in Khartoum.

Many civilians have been caught in the crossfire of the conflict and have also been directly targeted outside of the clashes by both sides, with cases including incidents of sexual and gender-based violence.7 While figures from early reports vary as the situation continues to develop, estimates from the Sudan Doctors’ Syndicate put civilian fatalities at over 400.8 ACLED records at least 22 civilian targeting events during the reporting period, with over 70% occurring in Khartoum. For example, a SAF airstrike hit a residential area south of Khartoum on 24 April, killing several and injuring dozens while destroying houses.

In multiple civilian targeting incidents, RSF and SAF forces have detained and attacked civil society actors and journalists, including an RSF arrest, interrogation, and physical assault of a spokesperson for the Sudanese Democratic Alliance for Social Justice in Khartoum. At the start of the fighting, a SAF soldier detained and assaulted a BBC journalist in Omdurman. ACLED also records at least six incidents of violence targeting foreign diplomatic personnel and convoys in Omdurman, Khartoum, and en route to Port Sudan. In addition to these attacks, looting and destruction of civilian property are widespread, especially in Khartoum and throughout Darfur, as armed groups exploit the outbreak of conflict to steal from banks, shops, humanitarian offices, hospitals, and homes. The looting of aid has further exacerbated the humanitarian situation in the country.9 As a result, thousands of people have fled the conflict zones to other areas of Sudan and neighboring countries, while thousands remain trapped amid fighting.10 

On 29 April, the police deployed the Central Reserve Police, locally known as Abu Tira, in Khartoum to purportedly “maintain security.”11 Abu Tira forces have been accused of serious human rights violations due to their use of violence against protesters during anti-coup demonstrations in Sudan.12 ACLED records over 115 civilian targeting events involving the group since 2019, resulting in more than 50 civilian fatalities.

Shifting Geography of Political Violence

With the escalation of fighting in the capital, the epicenter of political violence has shifted to Khartoum (see maps below). Over the year prior to the latest clashes, Darfur region was the most violent area of the country and home to 56% of all political violence incidents recorded in Sudan. However, during the period of 15 April-3 May 2023, political violence reported in Khartoum grew from the weekly average of 14% to over 50% of all political violence. Violence also escalated in other areas like North Kordofan state and Northern state, which typically experience lower levels of political violence. However, as the conflict has progressed, fighting between the two sides has become more concentrated geographically. While battle events between the SAF and RSF were reported in 16 states during the first week of fighting, that number decreased to nine during the second week.

Most clashes were concentrated in Khartoum and urban areas along major roadways (see map above). Over two-thirds of the fighting between the SAF and RSF has taken place in cities of over 100,000 people.13 Outside of battles in Khartoum and neighboring Omdurman and Bahri, fighting was highest in the cities of El Obeid, Nyala, El Fasher, and El Geneina. Fighting between the RSF and SAF outside of Khartoum underscores the RSF’s persistent involvement in Sudan’s peripheral areas. ACLED also records a dozen territory transfer incidents during the reporting period, with the RSF taking control of areas in at least four locations, including a short overtake of Merowe Airport, and in Nyala, Khartoum, and Khartoum North. In turn, the SAF took control of several RSF headquarters and camps in Port Sudan, Kadugli, and El Fasher. Control of many strategic locations and resources is currently split between the two groups.14

 

Distribution of Political Violence Events in Sudan

In some regions, such as Darfur, the SAF and RSF have allegedly engaged in widespread recruitment from local tribal groups in recent months,15 amid reports that the SAF has been targeting forces loyal to Hemedti’s tribal rival Musa Hilal – a claim the SAF refutes.16 While many local armed groups outside the country’s main urban areas have not been reported as active in the fighting, these fighters may be operating within the ranks of the SAF or RSF. As the conflict escalates, heightened RSF and SAF engagement outside Khartoum may also exacerbate fighting between local armed groups around the country.

In West Darfur, violence increased by four times in El Geneina during the second week of fighting compared to the week prior, as clashes between the SAF and RSF triggered deadly intercommunal clashes between Masalit militias and Arab militias affiliated with the RSF.17 In El Fasher, an Arab militia attacked Shala prison in the city, releasing prisoners. Five armed groups that are signatories to the Juba Peace Agreement – Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) led by Minni Minnawi, SLM-Transitional Council, Justice and Equality Movement, Gathering of Sudan Liberation Forces, and Sudanese Alliance Movement – deployed forces in the city to maintain security. These developments have raised fears of a renewed civil war in Darfur.

Note: Analysis includes published data for the period of 15-28 April 2023, available through the ACLED website, as well as preliminary unpublished data for the period of 29 April-3 May 2023, which will be released on 22 May 2023 following ACLED’s two-week data pause, along with data for the period of 29 April-19 May 2023. Details are subject to change as further information becomes available.

This fact sheet was updated on 5 May 2023. Click here to download the original version.

Visuals in this fact sheet were produced by Ana Marco.

For more Sudan analysis, see our Sudan country hub.

1    This analysis includes published data for the period of 15-28 April 2023, available through the ACLED website, as well as preliminary unpublished data for the period of 29 April-3 May 2023, which will be released on 22 May 2023 following ACLED’s two-week data pause, along with data for the period of 29 April-19 May 2023. Details are subject to change as further information becomes available.

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Kenya Situation Update: April 2023 | Rise in Disorder as Opposition Stages Mass Demonstrations https://acleddata.com/2023/04/28/kenya-situation-update-april-2023-rise-in-disorder-as-opposition-stages-mass-demonstrations/ Fri, 28 Apr 2023 12:32:51 +0000 https://acleddata.com/?p=49475 Analysis of the political violence and protest trends in Kenya during April.

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Situation Update | April 2023

Kenya: Rise in Disorder as Opposition Stages Mass Demonstrations

28 April 2023

Kenya at a Glance: 25 March-21 April 2023

VITAL TRENDS

  • ACLED records over 80 political violence events resulting in more than 50 reported fatalities from 25 March to 21 April 2023. Nairobi county had the highest number of political violence events, mainly due to mob violence.
  • Nairobi county had the highest number of fatalities resulting from political violence as well, with 10 recorded during the reporting period. West Pokot and Samburu counties followed, with eight reported fatalities each. Nearly 40% of all fatalities resulted from violence involving pastoralist militias.
  • The most common event type was riots, with over 90 events, followed by protests, with over 50 events. The opposition Azimio la Umoja (Resolution for Unity) One Kenya Coalition Party organized demonstrations in over 40 locations around the country.

Rise in Disorder as Opposition Stages Mass Demonstrations 

Kenya has recently experienced a spate of opposition-led mass demonstrations, leading to a peak in disorder in the country. Last year, after a disputed election and amid allegations of vote rigging, Kenya’s former Deputy President William Ruto from Kenya Kwanza (Kenya First) Alliance was elected president, defeating opposition leader and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga of Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party.1 In February 2023, Odinga rallied his supporters and set a “deadline” for the government to address issues related to the elections and high cost of living, among other grievances, within 14 days. The coalition also announced the creation of a youth resistance wing, the Movement for Defense of Democracy.2 The Kenya Kwanza allies dismissed both as destabilizing attempts by Odinga.3 With demands unmet, the coalition officially launched the protest movement on 9 March, calling for the first nationwide protest on 20 March.4 Demonstrations over the following weeks left several people dead and paralyzed businesses in major towns.5 After Ruto appealed for negotiations, on 2 April, Odinga suspended demonstrations, but despite the ongoing talks, the opposition later renewed calls for a new round of protests from 2 May.6 This report analyzes the disorder trends related to the opposition-led anti-government unrest during the reporting period. It specifically discusses the opposition’s grievances, demands, and activities both in the lead-up to and during the period of unrest. 

Rise in Disorder and Opposition’s Grievances and Demands

March witnessed a rise in disorder events in Kenya due to the mass demonstrations called by the opposition. During the reporting period, from 25 March to 21 April, ACLED records demonstrations in almost 80 locations in 28 counties across the country. State intervention in demonstrations increased by over 30% compared to the previous four weeks after opposition-led protests were declared illegal on 19 March.7 Over half of the demonstrations during the reporting period were organized by the Azimio Coalition. About half of the recorded demonstration events were violent demonstrations (see graph below), with reports of rioters setting fire to a mosque, church, and police vehicle while also looting and damaging businesses and other property.8

The immediate trigger of the unrest was the high cost of living. In February, the Ruto government stated that it would not reinstate subsidies on essential commodities,9 and it plans to increase tax collection by nearly 20% in the new fiscal year.10 Subsequently, Odinga accused the government of “massive looting of the public resources and heartless withdrawal of subsidies to food, fuel and education.”11 The prominent Kenyan Christian organization, the National Council of Churches of Kenya, also supported the move.12 Beyond the cost of living, Odinga, who had claimed fraud during the last presidential election, demanded an audit of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) servers to verify the election results.13 Meanwhile, Ruto has taken steps to unilaterally select the IEBC commissioners – a move Odinga claims Ruto has taken without consultations with other interested parties and stakeholders.14

The unrest was a culmination of months-long preparations in the form of rallies, dubbed ‘People’s Barazas’ – consultative forums used for criticizing the Kenya Kwanza government for failing to live up to its election promises.15 The forums intended to build momentum ahead of the demonstrations by calling on all Kenyans to join the movement.16 Apart from Odinga from the Orange Democratic Movement, leaders of other parties, members of the parliament, and county governors part of the Azimio Coalition also attended the rallies.17 The rallies were held not only in counties where the coalition is viewed to enjoy massive political support, but also in the strongholds of Kenya Kwanza Alliance, such as Nyandarua and Nakuru.18

Although the rallies were largely peaceful, violence was reported in some locations. For instance, suspected Azimio supporters attacked journalists from TV47 media house and shattered their vehicle’s windows during a rally at the Jacaranda grounds in Embakasi, Nairobi, on 29 January. On 17 March, unknown people stormed the venue of a planned Azimio rally in Githurai, located at the border of Nairobi and Kiambu counties, vandalizing the dais. With the lapse of the 14-day ultimatum, on 9 March, the coalition launched a campaign of defiance consisting of picketing, strikes, and peaceful protests.19 The protests started the following day in the western region, in Vihiga and Kisumu counties. 

Unrest Escalates and Expands

The demonstrations gained momentum following Odinga’s call to action, with Azimio supporters in other areas taking to the streets. While the majority of demonstrations were peaceful between 10 to 19 March, violence escalated on 20 March, a day after the National Police Service declared these protests illegal.20 To encourage Azimio supporters to participate in the planned protests, Odinga told supporters they had “a date with destiny” on 20 March, and he symbolically declared it a ‘public holiday.’21 Attending a demonstration himself in Nairobi, he called for weekly nationwide protests after police blocked him from entering Serena Hotel where he was scheduled for a news conference.22 That day, a Maseno University student was shot and killed by police in Kisumu county, in what was the first reported fatality due to the unrest. As a response, the coalition announced a change in schedule, doubling the protests to twice a week, on Mondays and Thursdays. The coalition also called for an economic boycott by urging its supporters to boycott products and services from certain companies allegedly linked to the Kenya Kwanza administration.23

From 10 March to 21 April, ACLED records pro-Azimio anti-government demonstrations in over 55 locations in the country. Nearly half of these were violent demonstration events, with 70% occurring in Nairobi and Kisumu counties – both Azimio strongholds (see map below). Both counties also saw the highest rate of state intervention in demonstrations compared with other counties. At least seven fatalities were reported during the unrest in these two counties, including the aforementioned student and a police officer who was hit by a police car during the demonstrations.

Information on election results per county is sourced from Citizen Digital – Kenya Elections 2022.

During the unrest, police in riot gear engaged the demonstrators in clashes, and used tear gas, water cannons, and at times live bullets to disperse the groups attending the demonstrations. Police forces also arrested hundreds of Azimio supporters, including several Azimio leaders and lawmakers.24 Emphasizing Azimio’s role in instigating the disorder, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for the international indictment of Odinga for causing the unrest.25 On the other hand, in a letter recently submitted to the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor, Azimio Coalition requests a probe into the political situation in the country. The coalition alleges the formation of a special police squad in plain clothes responsible for the killing and maiming of its supporters during the demonstrations.26 

Moreover, ACLED records violent events involving alleged pro-government militias, amid tensions and allegations that former President Uhuru Kenyatta was responsible for funding the demonstrations.27 On 27 March, an unidentified armed group stormed Kenyatta’s family farm in Ruiru, Kiambu county, and stole thousands of cattle before setting the farm ablaze. There was no report of police intervention.28 A media report claims that the militia was mobilized in advance by two members of the parliament and a former governor, among others.29 On the same day, another group destroyed property and smashed windows of the building at a company linked to Odinga in Nairobi Industrial Area. 

There were also occasional reports of property destruction by the demonstrators. For instance, in Kisumu, on 30 March, Azimio supporters stormed a mortuary and vandalized and stole items worth millions of shillings after mortuary attendants did not let them see the body of a person allegedly shot by police during the unrest. The same day, in the neighboring Siaya county, demonstrators outnumbered the police and set Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party office ablaze before carting away valuables. Additionally, from 27 to 30 March, ACLED records several incidents of violence against journalists by the rioters and the police, sparking public outrage.30

On 2 April, the Azimio leader called off mass protests, in what appeared to be a truce with the government.31 Azimio made the announcement moments after President Ruto’s state of the nation live address, where he called for a peaceful resolution of the Azimio grievances, especially on the reconstitution of the IEBC.32 Pressure from the African Union and western states likely convinced the opposition and the government to call for a truce.33 Already, both camps have selected their seven representatives to the bipartisan committee ahead of the dialogue.34 The committee has also selected two representatives, one from each camp, to serve as co-chairs of the dialogue.35 Nonetheless, it is not yet clear how far the bipartisan teams will go in addressing all the grievances raised by the opposition. Azimio leaders have already kicked off new rallies as a precursor to another set of planned mass protests from 2 May, should the government back out from the dialogue.36 Moreover, the opposition has claimed sabotage after the government poached some Azimio members to be its representative in the bipartisan committee.37 While it is unlikely that the ICC will open investigations into the Kenya situation as demanded by the Azimio Coalition, both the government and Azimio’s measures show distrust and might undermine the bi-partisan dialogue and the peace and stability of the country at large.

The post Kenya Situation Update: April 2023 | Rise in Disorder as Opposition Stages Mass Demonstrations appeared first on ACLED.

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